If AI kills the market value of a degree, how many colleges will survive?

Just as the printing press made the monasteries obsolete, our university system is on the brink of collapse, writes John Carter in an epic rant on Postcards from Barsoom. "Scholarly careerism, declining curricular standards, the replication crisis, a demented ideological monoculture, administrative bloat" have rendered "universities less effective, less trustworthy, less affordable, and less useful than ever before."

Credentialism has kept universities relevant -- until now, he writes. While research universities will survive, AI will be the death blow for colleges that rely on undergraduates' tuition to pay the bills.

Very few are paying for an education, whether that's defined as essential career skills or critical thinking or "historical and philosophical understanding," Carter writes. What they're buying is a credential they can use to prove they have "the minimal level of self-discipline and intelligence required to handle routine tasks at the entry-level end of the org chart."

But ChatGPT, which can write essays or code or solve math problems, is a credential killer, he writes. Employers will assume everyone in the class of 2026 cheated their way through school. Degrees "will be assumed to demonstrate nothing more than the ability to write prompts, which is not a complicated skill."

Furthermore, with disparate impact under heavy fire, employers can stop using college degrees as a sign of cognitive ability and develop their own aptitude tests.

I think colleges will try to adapt: Perhaps they'll offer cognitive-skills tests that employers will consider valid. But many young people will be looking for cheaper, faster paths to the job market than the pursuit of a bachelor's degree. And, as AI fills many of those entry-level white-collar jobs, more young people will look to the skilled trades.

Some liberal arts colleges could become mental fitness centers for those who want to resist the inevitable brain rot caused by reliance on AI, Carter predicts. "The only possible way to keep our minds stay nimble and sharp is to deliberately engage in challenging intellectual pastimes," he writes."Study will be a high-status activity" for those with the self-discipline to pursue learning for its own sake.

To save higher education and keep faith with U.S. taxpayers, universities must commit to "truth over ideology, institutional neutrality, color-blind equality, free speech, civil discourse, and administrative transparency," writes Christopher Rufo in The Free Press.

The public has lost faith in higher education, according to a Manhattan Institute poll. The proposed reforms were backed by Democrats and Republicans and across racial lines. For example, 57 percent supported "a colorblind approach—eliminating DEI bureaucracies, ending racially segregated programs, and banning the use of race in admissions, hiring, promotions, and contracting," with 18 percent opposed.

Two-thirds want "universities provide a real forum for free speech, by protecting dissenting views and ensuring a wider range of debate beyond the dominant campus consensus."