Married with kids is making a (modest) comeback

Marriage is making a comeback, writes Brad Wilcox, a University of Virginia sociology professor, in The Atlantic. "Divorce is down and the share of children in two-parent families is up."

We're a long way from the 1950's. In 1960, 83 percent of "prime-age adults" (25 to 55) were married, Wilcox writes. That fell to 57 percent by 2010, while the share of children born out of wedlock rose from 5 percent to 41 percent.

But, "marriage as a social institution is showing new strength — even among groups that drifted away from the institution in the 20th century, including Black and working-class Americans," writes Wilcox.

"The idea that marriage will end in failure half the time or more — well entrenched in many American minds — is out-of-date," he writes. "The proportion of first marriages expected to end in divorce has fallen to about 40 percent in recent years."

The "marriage renaissance" is good for children, Wilcox writes with co-authors Lyman Stone, Wendy Wang and Grant Bailey of the Institute for Family Studies. Children are more likely to grow up in a stable family.

"Educated, affluent, religious, and conservative Americans" are "the most likely to put a ring on it," they write. While 87 percent of children from upper-income families have married parents, compared to 42 percent for those from lower-income families. 

But the trends are changing for lower-income and black families, especially a steep fall in the divorce rate. The percentage of children in lower-income families with married parents rose from 38 percent in 2012 to 42 percent in 2024.

One reason divorce is down is that marriage is more selective, write the IFS authors. Those likely to succeed at marriage are more likely to take the plunge. Others are in the basement with their devices. "Record shares of today’s young adults — about 1-in-3 — will never marry and never have children —about 1-in 4." They worry about "political polarization between the sexes, the falling fortunes of men, and the digital revolution’s degradation of social skills and dating opportunities among young adults."

A future where a third of adults are dating sexbots seems bleak. Wilcox and colleagues hope "growing cultural recognition of marriage’s value, recent religious and civic initiatives to promote marriage . . . and new nationwide efforts to protect children, young adults, and families from the addictive power of Big Tech could . . . renew the fortunes of love, marriage, and family among the rising generation."