Advanced math -- AP Calculus or AP Statistics -- leads to higher pay

Students who take advanced math do better in college and the job market, but AP Calculus students may not earn more in the long run than those who take AP Statistics, concludes a new Fordham report.

Taking AP Calculus impresses admissions officials at selective colleges, even though nearly all concede that it's not essential for all students.

Rigorous data science classes "also teach valuable quantitative skills that may be more easily transferable to any number of other career fields," write Fordham's Amber M. Northern and Michael J. Petrilli in the foreword.

Enrollment in statistics is rising, while calculus enrollment has plateaued, researchers found. However, most students aren't prepared to succeed in any advanced math class. "In 2019, just 16 percent of high school graduates took calculus and 17 percent took probability and statistics," they write. "Of the calculus takers, 46 percent were Asian, 18 percent were White, 9 percent were Hispanic, and 6 percent were Black."

"Eight years after college graduation, AP Calculus students are estimated to outearn their AP Statistics peers by $1,888 annually, an advantage of about 4 percent," the study found. By year 10, the difference was no longer statistically significant.

AP Calculus students are more likely to earn STEM degrees and work "in manufacturing, health care, oil and gas, and construction, whereas AP Statistics students are more likely to be employed in finance and insurance, accommodation and food services, administrative services, information, real estate, and arts and entertainment," write Northern and Petrilli. "Both pathways can lead to success in quantitative careers."

Some are pushing to rework Algebra II to include statistics, probability, and other topics relevant to data science, so students will be prepared to choose a statistics pathway.

What about the students who give up on math in elementary or middle school? Fordham is pushing for expanding the advanced-math pipeline by "early entry into kindergarten for kids who are ready; universally screening all students for 'gifted' services; automatically enrolling students into higher math courses if their test scores indicate readiness; and encouraging grade skipping for those who are already exceeding grade-level standards." They also want more access to advanced course-taking in low-income schools.

I think we need to improve math instruction for all students with a focus on what works, not the latest fad.

For example, AP Statistics may lead to success, but there's no evidence that much easier data science classes are useful. Hechinger's Javeria Salman wrote about the controversy in California last year.

Oxnard schools now offer data science to its mostly Hispanic students as an alternative for "students who might struggle in traditional junior and senior math courses such as Algebra II, Pre-Calculus and Calculus," she writes. "At least 17 states now offer data science (an interdisciplinary field that combines computer programming, math and statistics) as a high school math option."

The state university system announced in 2020 that students could substitute data science for Algebra II to help more students qualify for college, then reversed its decision in 2023 after math professors and others warned students who skipped advanced algebra for what they called "data literacy" would be unprepared for college. Educated, tech-savvy parents will steer their children to the calculus track, they argued, while students from disadvantaged families will take a lower track leading nowhere.

Nathalia Alcantara summarizes the controversy in California. A group called Legalize Math in California is trying to prevent UC from wobbling on data science.