More kids, more elders

“The United States faces a staggering demographic challenge over the next two decades,” writes Matthew Ladner on redefinED.

It will hit first in Florida. “The state will need to find a way to educate far more than one million additional students each year by 2030.” At the same time, Florida’s elderly population will more than double between 2010 and 2030, from 3.4 million to almost 7.8 million people 65 and older.

Building more schools and providing more care for the elderly will put a heavy burden on working-age Floridians.

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  1. Crimson Wife says:

    I thought the U.S. birth rate had been falling every year since ’07 and was now quite a bit below replacement level (1.88 vs. 2.1)? Where are these extra kids going to be coming from?

    • Perhaps immigration, and perhaps Florida’s demographics differ from the rest of the US. Does the Cuban-American population tend to high birth rtes?

      • Crimson Wife says:

        If the data on Wikipedia is reliable, then Florida’s fertility rate is 1.834, which puts it 40th out of the 50 states. The only states that have above replacement fertility are UT, AK, SD, ID, TX, KS, HI, NE, and OK. Of those, only UT, AK, SD, and ID have rates >2.2.

  2. palisadesk says:

    Florida will shortly surpass New York as the third most populous state. The population increase is due not to an abnormally high birth rate but to migration, largely from other parts of the U.S. There are many articles online about the census data, but here’s one:

    A problem noted by some analysts is that while Florida’s population growth is accelerating, its productivity growth is not:

    • Crimson Wife says:

      Are families with minor kids moving to FL though? Everyone I know who has moved to FL in recent years has been an empty nester.