Do the math

Ohio’s secretary of state estimates there will be 175,000 provisional ballots at most. In 2000, 83 percent of provisional ballots were ruled valid. Assuming that’s the pattern this year, what percentage of the valid provisional ballots would John Kerry need to win to erase George W. Bush’s 145,000 vote lead in Ohio? I figure 100 percent. And I’m a math tutor! What are the odds that 100 percent of provisional ballots were cast for Kerry? I figure zero.

Ohio also has yet to count late-arriving absentee ballots from military personnel stationed overseas. A recent poll showed more than 70 percent of military voters support Bush.

Florida was close — absurdly close. Ohio is not.

Thank you, John Kerry, for your gracious concession.

But in an American election, there are no losers, because whether or not our candidates are successful, the next morning we all wake up as Americans. That is the greatest privilege and the most remarkable good fortune that can come to us on Earth.


In the days ahead, we must find common cause.  We must join in common effort, without remorse or recrimination, without anger or rancor.  America is in need of unity and longing for a larger measure of compassion.

I hope President Bush will advance those values in the coming years. I pledge to do my part to try to bridge the partisan divide.

I know this is a difficult time for my supporters, but I ask them, all of you, to join me in doing that.  Now, more than ever, with our soldiers in harm’s way, we must stand together and succeed in Iraq and win the war on terror.

I will also do everything in my power to ensure that my party, a proud Democratic Party, stands true to our best hopes and ideals.

Kerry was speaking for the future of his party. I hope Democrats were listening.

About Joanne


  1. Mad Scientist says:

    Even if you include the yet-to-be counted absentee ballots, Kerry would have to win about 80%. Probability is still near zero.

    It’s just a matter of time until Kerry concedes. In any event, Bush will claim victory later today.

    And no nonsense about “losing the popular vote”. Bush even has a clear majority of the popular vote, something even Clinton could not muster.

  2. I’d expect that Sen. Edwards will probably be pushing Sen. Kerry to concede, as Edwards will surely be looking ahead to 2008.

    Conservatives who decried the tone used by the left to describe Pres. Bush will certainly have the opportunity to practice civil discourse when Sen. Clinton is in the race.

  3. It now sounds like Kerry is going to concede at 1 PM.

  4. John from OK says:

    Most overused word after every election: Mandate!

  5. Richard Nieporent says:

    John Edwards get most asinine comment of the day award.

    You stood in line for 10 hours because you want your government to stand up for you. You stood in the rain to vote because you want to build one America. You missed classes, field hockey, soccer practices.

    Imagine having to miss soccer practice to vote. Is there no sacrifice too great for us to have to make?

    John Kerry gets the no principles award.

    In America, it is vital that every vote count, and that every vote be counted. But the outcome should be decided by voters, not a protracted legal process. I would not give up this fight if there was a chance that we would prevail.

    First he says that we should not have a protracted legal process. However, in his very next statement he states that he would have done it in a heartbeat if there was a ghost of a chance that it would have succeeded.

  6. I guess God speaks to Pat Robertson after all.